CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T02:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27043/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T03:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1026.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1095.22 Acceleration: -2.84254 Duration in seconds: 175827.96 Duration in days: 2.0350459 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.84 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 595.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/09/2023 Time: 03:14 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 19.90 hour(s)
Difference: 16.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-09-23T23:58Z
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